Shares of the EV maker have been up almost 3.6{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} Friday.
The boost in February shipments is not surprising presented that CPCA reported February sales of new vitality automobiles, which include battery electric powered and hybrid profits, rose by 30{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} overall. And it mentioned last month that January would be a “weak” month for in general profits in the region owing to the Chinese New 12 months.
Nonetheless, more robust revenue in February for Tesla is a good progress as competitiveness rises in the essential Chinese EV market, where by Tesla is obtaining an escalating total of its international revenue.
“Tesla’s ongoing expansion in China ought to occur as no shock,” Chandan Kumar, head of products and solutions at index supplier Indxx, said. “As a rational final result of this Tesla, regardless of what a lot of Americans may possibly consider, only gets around 31{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} of its overall product sales from the US, with the relaxation primarily all from China and Europe.”
A customer checks a Tesla Design 3 motor vehicle at a showroom of the U.S. electric motor vehicle (EV) maker in Beijing, China February 4, 2023. REUTERS/Florence Lo
Recent selling price cuts in January of the Chinese-designed Product 3 and the Model Y — which have been lower by 13.5{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} and 10{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}, respectively — are obviously giving Tesla a raise in the area, in spite of rivals like BYD outselling them in February. BYD’s new electrical power vehicle revenue jumped by above 100{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} to 193,655. Meanwhile, Tesla’s share of the new electrical power sector in China slipped to 9{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} from 10{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} though BYD’s share rose to 37{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} from 27{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}, in accordance to the CPCA.
Tom Zhu, Tesla’s head of global manufacturing (and possible heir clear to CEO Elon Musk), resolved considerations about need in China earlier this week at Tesla’s Investor Day.
“As long as you provide a product or service with value at an cost-effective rate, you don’t have to get worried about desire,” Zhu mentioned for the duration of the Q&A part of the celebration late Wednesday evening. Zhu mentioned the selling price cuts in China “generated big demand, additional than we can generate, seriously.” Tesla also lower costs in Australia, Japan, and South Korea in purchase to gin up need.
Tesla’s China site (3/3/2023)
The price cuts of study course ended up cheered by new Tesla buyers in China but had been met with deep resentment and protests by current buyers who were being not provided a refund or other types of payment, this kind of as no cost charging, when the value cuts have been announced.
According to Tesla’s China site, the present-day wait around time for all versions of the created-to-order Model 3 stands at 1 to 4 weeks, and the wait time for the Model Y SUV (RWD and twin motor) is two to five months.
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Pras Subramanian is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. You can abide by him on Twitter and on Instagram.
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Actual estate brokers validate what housing facts is starting off to show: More homebuyers are rising from their self-imposed hibernation.
The volume of home finance loan apps for household buys rose 25{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} week above week, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) survey for the week ending Jan. 13 found. Housing sentiment ticked better at the end of last yr, per Fannie Mae. And property builders are reporting an raise in consumer site visitors in January, the first uptick considering that December 2021, according to an market survey.
These customers are hoping to reap the benefits from a additional favorable marketplace, bagging seller incentives alongside with a a little bit decreased home finance loan rate, right before the spring-acquiring period appeals to far more competitiveness.
“I experienced one particular of my shoppers at Meta and an additional from Microsoft who have been energetic up right until September of past calendar year access out to me final weekend,” Jeff Reynolds, a broker at Compass and founder of UrbanCondoSpaces.com, told Yahoo Finance. “They had wanted to see what the industry would do, and given that it seems to have stabilized and prices are down, they are hoping to get a phase ahead of what would inevitably be a real estate bottom.”
Home sellers are additional probable to provide customers concessions, a Redfin report uncovered. At the very least 42{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} of households marketed throughout the fourth quarter of 2022 bundled an incentive. (Credit rating: Getty Artistic).
‘Bringing people today back in’
The dip in mortgage loan prices in latest weeks has taken some of the edge off of the document-placing ascent fees clocked in last year. Last week, the typical level on the 30-yr fixed home finance loan — the most normally made use of home financial loan for a order — settled nearer to 6{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} than 7{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}, fitting into extra buyers’ budgets.
“Interest prices are greater for 1st-time consumers. I assume in a natural way it is just bringing persons back again in,” John Downs, senior vice president at Vellum House loan, advised Yahoo Finance.
At the very same time, residence prices have also softened, with the median record value falling to $400,000 in December, according to Redfin, down 11.1{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} from June’s peak of $449,000.
“The vast majority of activity is from new customers,” Reynolds mentioned. “In our microclimate in downtown Seattle, the bulk of activity has hit really very affordable price tag details. Which is pushed primarily by that millennial consumer, that youthful consumer, or very first-time buyer eventually getting gain of market circumstances — possibly for the 1st time.”
‘Picking for deals’
The consumers who are coming again are also acquiring gutsy, recognizing that the sellers who remain in the marketplace are open to negotiation.
“In 2022, consumers set the market place by bidding up, which led to escalating charges and basically possessing to pay to earn,” Downs reported. “Now, in its place of ready for listing charges to fall, purchasers post presents with large discount rates and make the seller make a decision. And that would seem to be operating.”
At minimum 16.6{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} of houses bought in December experienced a value lower, Realtor.com info located, an boost from 7.1{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} a 12 months ago. Even property builders are squishy on cost.
Just one of Monte Miner’s purchasers obtained $15,000 off a freshly created residence at first priced at $409,000, according to the real estate agent at Ironwood Fine Attributes in Arizona.
Rick Nazarro of Colonial Manor Realty talks with a pair of interested potential buyers in the driveway as a pair waits to enter a home he is hoping to sell throughout an open up residence in Revere, MA. (Credit: Blake Nissen for The Boston Globe by using Getty Photos)
“Buyers are coming back, but they are buying for discounts. Let’s say a property is shown for $400,000 — a good deal of the provides coming in are beneath that variety,” Miner mentioned. “Some sellers’ pricing expectations are stuck in the past, like 3 months ago. It is distinctive now.”
Not only are some people finding large rate reductions, they are also snagging vendor concessions to further relieve the stress of still-high home rates.
For instance, at the very least 35{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} of builders lowered their home costs in December, facts from the Nationwide Affiliation of Homebuilders located. A further 62{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} of builders ongoing to use incentives to appeal to purchasers, such as amount obtain-downs and paying out points. In accordance to Redfin, roughly 42{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} of residences bought in the closing 3 months of 2022 involved a vendor concession, such as funds for repairs or closing prices.
“If you never haven’t sufficient cash for closing costs,” Downs explained, “sellers are supplying to shell out it for you,”
A sign is posted in front of new condominiums for sale on December 19, 2022 in Los Angeles, California. (Credit score: Mario Tama/Getty Photographs)
Timing is all the things
With fees at last inching down, now could be an opportune time to acquire a household before the spring year is in total swing, Downs reported. But you require to be prepared. Getting a pre-qualification all set, placing a spending plan, and conversing to a true estate qualified can improve your probabilities of negotiating a much better deal at closing.
In accordance to Miner, stepping into the market place right before it will get flooded by competitiveness could be a very good shift if you want to negotiate terms.
“From what I’m observing,” Miner explained, “I sense like the base is below.”
Gabriella is a own finance reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @__gabriellacruz.
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Stocks ticked lower last week, with the S&P 500 declining 0.7{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}. The index is now up 10.9{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} from its October 12 closing low of 3,577.03 and down 17.3{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} from its January 3 closing high of 4,796.56.
On Thursday, I had the privilege of speaking to a class taught by Greg Harmon, one of the savviest minds in trading. Harmon teaches financial markets at Case Western Reserve University’s business school.
Below are some charts I shared with his class. They’re a reminder for investors to be cautious with news headlines that may belie a greater, more nuanced truth. TKer subscribers may recognize some of them.
The stock market sorta reflects the economy. But also, not really. The S&P 500 is more about the manufacture and sale of goods. U.S. GDP is more about providing services. Read more here.
Beating expectations is generally a good thing. But when it comes to earnings announcements, “better-than-expected” has lost its meaning. Read more here.
Stock buybacks can lead to lower share counts. But is it a major driver of EPS growth? No. Read more here.
While the stock market returns about 8-10{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} per year on average, you rarely ever see the market produce an average return in a given year. Read more here.
Analysts’ forecasts are not destiny. They’ll get revised up, and they’ll get revised down. Manage your expectations with analysts’ expectations. Read more here.
A high or low P/E ratio won’t tell you where prices are headed next year. Read more here.
Employers lay off lots of workers every month, even during boom times…
… BUT even 1.3 million layoffs in a single month represent just 0.9{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} of total employment. Read more here and here.
While we’re on the subject of layoffs, it’s important to understand that all of the tech layoffs we’re reading about are not a sign that widespread layoffs are coming. Among other things, tech represents a very small share of total employment in the U.S. Read more here.
There were a few notable data points from last week to consider:
🚨 Consumers are spending. Retail sales jumped 1.3{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in October, the biggest gain in eight months. Excluding autos and gas, sales were up a strong 0.9{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}.
Most retail categories saw gains.
🛍 Retailer anecdotes were mixed. Here are some headlines from the past week:
Walmart raises outlook as groceries boost sales, inventory glut recedes – CNBC
Target posts huge earnings miss as consumers pull back – Yahoo Finance
TJX posts mixed earnings with profit above estimates but sales slightly light – MarketWatch
Keep in mind that these are just anecdotes. While an individual company’s performance is certainly affected by macroeconomic trends, they also face company-specific issues that may cause them to underperform or outperform their categories.
💳 Credit card balances are up. According to New York Fed data released Tuesday, household credit card balances jumped 15{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in Q3, the biggest increase in at least 18 years of data.
Younger borrowers are carrying higher balances than before the pandemic.
While delinquencies are ticking up, it’s important to note that they’re below pre-pandemic levels. In other words, delinquencies are normalizing.
💵 Consumers still have a lot of excess savings. From Goldman Sachs: “…we estimate that households have drawn down about 25{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} of their excess savings so far and will have spent around 60{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} by end-2023.“ For more on excess savings and consumer financial strength, read this.
(Source: Goldman Sachs)
👍 Wholesale price inflation cools. According to the BLS, the producer price index in October was up 8.0{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} from a year ago. Adjusted for food and energy prices, core PPI was up 6.7{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}.
😞 Expectations for inflation got worse. From the NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations: “Median inflation expectations increased at both the one- and three-year-ahead horizons in October, by 0.5 and 0.2 percentage point, respectively, to 5.9{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} and 3.1{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}. Both increases were broad-based across age, education, and income groups… Median five-year-ahead inflation expectations, which have been elicited in the monthly SCE core survey on an ad-hoc basis since the beginning of this year and were first published in July 2022, increased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.4{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}…“
🥪 Food prices are cooling. From Bloomberg’s Javier Blas: “Take the monthly food-cost index compiled by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organisation. Over the last two years, it surged inexorably higher, posting year-on-year increases of as much as 40{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} by the middle of 2021, and 20{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} to 30{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in early-to-mid 2022. Since then, however, the index has fallen back sharply, paring its annual gains in October to just 1.9{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}. Based on current trends, the FAO index is likely to post in November its first annual drop in more than two years.“
🌾 Food giant says prices are coming down. From Bloomberg: “Food prices will probably decline next year, even as global crop stockpiles stay very tight, especially for oilseeds, said David MacLennan, chief executive officer of Cargill Inc., America’s largest private company.“
🦃 No Thanksgiving inflation at Walmart. From Axios’ Hope King: “Prices for a ‘typical Thanksgiving meal’ will be the same as last year, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said on a call with analysts Tuesday morning.“
This will be welcome news for Walmart shoppers. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, the average cost of Thanksgiving dinner this year is $64.05, up 20{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} from a year ago.
⛓ Inventory levels are up. According to the Census Bureau, business inventories increased by 0.4{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in September.
The inventory/sales ratio was 1.33 during the month, up from 1.26 a year ago.
🛠️ Business investment has been holding up. From The Wall Street Journal: “Big U.S. companies are stepping up their spending on capital projects, putting expenditures on pace to set a quarterly record even as worries about a potential recession loom. Capital spending among companies in the S&P 500 in the third quarter is set to top $200 billion, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices, which analyzed data through Monday from roughly 90{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} of index components. That is on pace for a jump of about 20{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} from a year earlier, roughly in line with the first and second quarter’s growth rates.“ For more on capex, read this.
🏚 Home sales continue to tumble. Sales of previously owned homes fell 5.9{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in October to an annualized rate of 4.4 million units. From NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun: “More potential homebuyers were squeezed out from qualifying for a mortgage in October as mortgage rates climbed higher. The impact is greater in expensive areas of the country and in markets that witnessed significant home price gains in recent years.”
💸 Home prices are cooling. From the NAR: “The median existing-home price for all housing types in October was $379,100, a gain of 6.6{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} from October 2021 ($355,700), as prices rose in all regions. This marks 128 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.“
📉 Mortgage rates comes down a bit. According to Freddie Mac data, the average rate for the 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.61{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} as of November 17, down from 7.08{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} the week prior. From Freddie Mac: “Mortgage rates tumbled this week due to incoming data that suggests inflation may have peaked. While the decline in mortgage rates is welcome news, there is still a long road ahead for the housing market. Inflation remains elevated, the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates high and consumers will continue to feel the impact.“
On the matter of recession risks, consumers are increasingly stretching their finances to maintain their spending. They’re accumulating more debt and a growing number of these folks are going delinquent.
One of the primary storylines throughout Week 5 was a curiosity over how many undefeated teams would make it through the weekend maintaining that moniker. College football’s oft-unbalanced schedules create circumstances in which teams can get through the first month of the season with a zero in the loss column even if that’s not indicative of their true standing within the sport. It’s right about now — one-third of the way through the season — when conference play begins and that number declines rapidly.
Week 5 was a “prove it” period for many teams in the eyes of the AP Top 25 poll voters.
Oklahoma State and Ole Miss are two examples of teams coming out on the positive end of this “prove it” weekend with both remaining undefeated despite facing ranked opponents . The Cowboys’ best win had previously been Arizona State until Mike Gundy’s squad got in and out of Waco, Texas, with a win against Baylor. Similarly, the Rebels had just one win against a Power Five opponent prior to holding off Kentucky with a pair of fourth-quarter defensive stands. Oklahoma State and Ole Miss are not only slated for a bump up in the rankings, they picked up wins that will solidify their positions as two of the better teams in the country.
Just as we saw some ranked teams solidify their position, others fell short in their “prove it” opportunities. Minnesota had surged into the national picture with its win against Michigan State but will drop in the polls after falling to Purdue. The same was expected for Washington and Florida State as they were also favored to win this weekend but instead dropped from the ranks of the unbeaten. How voters respond to these setbacks will differ, but what’s certain is that all of these teams will be ranked lower than they were going into the weekend.
The most interesting debate for the AP Top 25 will be how the voters reward previously unranked teams that made it through the weekend undefeated. Kansas was the first team on the outside looking in last week — don’t blame us, they were No. 23 in the CBS Sports 131 — so the Jayhawks appearing in the AP Top 25 for the first time since 2009 is basically a guarantee.
However, the rest of the group was not as well represented in last week’s balloting. Will simply being undefeated be enough to jump other teams in the battle for those last 10-12 spots? UCLA and TCU seem like locks to not only be ranked but see massive jumps ahead of one-loss teams that were ranked last week as the Bruins knocked off Washington Friday night and TCU absolutely throttled Oklahoma Saturday afternoon. Still, Syracuse (ranked in the Coaches Poll last week), James Madison and others will be looking for more respect from the AP Top 25 voters.
Here’s how we think the new AP Top 25 college football rankings will look on Sunday.
1. Georgia (Last week — 1): The Bulldogs will drop some of their 55 first-place votes after avoiding an upset at Missouri, just not enough to lose the No. 1 spot. The concerns over the quality of performance these last two weeks are fair as the debate continues around the top three teams in the country, but 87{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} of voters thought the Bulldogs were No. 1 last week, and a narrow win won’t be the reason a majority of those voters change their mind Sunday.
2. Alabama (2): All the attention will be on Bryce Young’s status after the reigning Heisman Trophy winner suffered a shoulder injury in the 49-26 win at Arkansas. But the win, especially given the loss of Young, speaks to an Alabama team that just logged one of its best performances in a true road environment since the start of last season.
3. Ohio State (3): No Jaxon Smith-Njigba, no TreVeyon Henderson, no problem for the Buckeyes. There was a heated moment between Ryan Day and Greg Schiano, but ultimately, Ohio State cruised in a 49-10 win over Rutgers.
4. Clemson (5): Two of the toughest teams in the ACC have challenged Clemson in the last two weeks, and the Tigers have passed each test, winning both a high-scoring shootout with Wake Forest and then a low-scoring grinder with NC State. The defensive effort and quality of win should be enough to close the already narrow gap in voting points between Clemson and Michigan, providing a slight bump up in the new rankings.
5. Michigan (4): The Wolverines refused to fall victim to the familiar storyline of a top-five team falling at Iowa, using an early lead to avoid any upset anxiety in a 27-14 win. Michigan set the tone, created a difficult situation for Iowa’s offense with a double-digit deficit and rode yet another 100-yard rushing performance from Blake Corum to the its road win of the season.
6. USC (6): The Trojans are now 5-0 after beating Arizona State on Saturday night. The next two weeks will do a better job of helping voters judge USC against the best teams in the country with a visit from Washington State on Oct. 8 and a trip to Utah on Oct. 15.
7. Oklahoma State (9): The change in ranking won’t be as significant as the change in opinion regarding Oklahoma State. The Cowboys were less than 40 points behind the Tennessee last week (1119 to 1081), and that was before Oklahoma State had a single ranked win to its name this season. We’re projecting a jump ahead of the Volunteers now that the Pokes’ profile has been solidified with a road win at Baylor.
8. Tennessee (8):The Vols were off in Week 5 and will be back in action next week at LSU.
9. Ole Miss (14): Lane Kiffin has the Rebels off to a 5-0 start for the first time since 2014, and the defense that won the game against Kentucky has been a highlight all season. This was Kiffin’s first top-10 win since he was leading USC in 2011. Up next is Vanderbilt.
10. Penn State (11): Somewhere between the undefeated teams that notched “prove it” wins and the ones that took their first loss you’ll find Penn State, which turned the ball over enough to get knocked off. Luckily, it was facing a Northwestern team that could not turn those opportunities into enough points. The Nittany Lions will get moved around in the shuffle at the top of the rankings, but they’re not a team voters will identify for a big jump after the 17-7 win against the Wildcats.
11. NC State (10): When the top of the rankings are reshuffled, it’s going to be tough to move NC State too far down given the Wolfpack’s only loss just came on the road to a top-five Clemson team rounding into form. The challenge for Dave Doeren’s group will be regrouping after the defeat with a key stretch ahead that includes Florida State and Syracuse.
12. Kentucky (7): The floor for Kentucky’s drop is still high considering the Wildcats are 4-1 with a road win in conference play. Plus,the 22-19 loss at Ole Miss suggests little separation between the two teams. What’s disappointing is the opportunity lost as two turnovers in the final 3 minutes of the game prevented the Wildcats from improving to 5-0.
13. Utah (12): What was a close contest in the third quarter got blown open by a late 21-0 run and Utah’s 42-16 win against Oregon State will meet the eye test for voters. The Utes have won four straight since the season-opening loss to Florida, winning those games by margins of 67, 28, 21 and 26 points.
14. Oregon (13): The Ducks jumped out to a 31-3 halftime lead against Stanford and never looked back against their hapless Pac-12 North rival. Up next is a trip to feisty Arizona before an open week.
15. Kansas (NR): The chorus has been booming for Kansas to be ranked for weeks, and after grinding out a 14-11 win against Iowa State to improve to 5-0 for the first time since 2009, the Jayhawks will be ranked for the first time since 2009. The question is whether they are this high.
16. UCLA (NR): Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson told the media he and his teammates heard the critics who doubted the strength of UCLA’s undefeated start and took it as motivation with a top-15 team in town. The 40-32 win against Washington was not indicative of how the Bruins controlled the contest with a sizable lead for much of the evening, but the quality win and 5-0 record will spark a big move up in the rankings.
17. TCU (NR): When the best wins on TCU’s profile were Colorado and SMU, it was understandable to leave the Horned Frogs off top 25 ballots. But considering not just the opponent but the margin in a 55-24 win against Oklahoma. it is undeniable that Sonny Dykes’ team is deserving of a spot in the AP Top 25 on Sunday.
18. BYU (19): Things got a little dicey against Utah State in a 12-point win, so we’re projecting some of the undefeated AP Top 25 newcomers land ahead of the Cougars. Otherwise, no major changes in BYU’s poll position.
19. Wake Forest (22): A move up is justified for Wake Forest after it followed a double-overtime loss to Clemson with a 31-21 win at Florida State. The Demon Deacons are clearly one of the best teams in the ACC, and as long as they can remain a one-loss team, they will climb in the rankings.
20. Washington (15): The value of Washington’s win against Michigan State lessened following the Spartans’ 0-2 start to Big Ten play, but losing by just eight on the road to another undefeated team isn’t likely to be enough to bounce the Huskies all the way out of the top 25.
21. Kansas State (25): A late push by Texas Tech brought some uncertainty but Kansas State avoided a letdown loss and improved to 4-1 with a 37-28 win against the Red Raiders.
22. Syracuse (NR): The Orange were ranked No. 25 in the Coaches Poll last week while receiving far less support from the AP Top 25 voters. Beating Wagner won’t move the needle as much as maintaining that zero in the loss column, which should spark a boost into the top 25.
23. Mississippi State (NR): The Bulldogs may have the same record (4-1) as the LSU team that beat them earlier this season, but we’re projecting the lopsided nature of the 42-24 win against previously-ranked Texas A&M keys a move into the top 25 for Mississippi State.
24. James Madison (NR): The Dukes are still riding momentum from last week’s upset of Appalachian State in the eyes of voters (a couple of whom already had JMU on their ballots), and a 40-13 win against Texas State is going to push them further up in the pecking order.
25. Coastal Carolina (NR): This is admittedly a bold call considering Coastal Carolina did not receive any votes last week, but if Week 5 truly turns into a referendum on who is still unbeaten then the Chanticleers — with plenty of voter familiarity from their strong showings in 2020 and 2021 — could crash the top 25 as well.
Projected to drop out: Baylor (16), Texas A&M (17), Oklahoma (18), Arkansas (20) Minnesota (21), Florida State (23), Pittsburgh (24)
