If You’d Invested $3,000 in Rivian Automotive in 2021, This Is How Much You Would Have Today

Rivian Automotive (RIVN -7.32{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}) was one of the hottest IPOs of 2021. The maker of electric powered vehicles, SUVs, and vans went general public at $78 a share in November 2021, and it created a ton of buzz mainly because its prime investors ended up Amazon (AMZN -2.36{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}) and Ford Motor Corporation (F -1.41{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}). Rivian had also began mass-manufacturing its electric powered automobiles (EVs) in advance of its IPO, which created it look more trustworthy than other pre-generation EV makers that went community by merging with exclusive purpose acquisition organizations (SPACs).

Rivian’s stock opened at $106.75 on the first working day and skyrocketed to an all-time large of $172.01 just a 7 days afterwards. But these days it trades at about $20 a share. A $3,000 investment decision in its IPO would have blossomed to more than $6,600 ahead of withering to less than $800 currently. Let us see why Rivian’s inventory originally soared, why it plummeted, and in which it may be headed in a calendar year.

Rivian's R1 pickups at its plant in Normal, Illinois.

Picture source: Rivian.

Why the bulls to begin with liked Rivian

Rivian manufactures three styles of EVs: the R1T pickup truck, the R1S SUV, and Amazon’s electric shipping van (EDV). Its R1 motor vehicles start off at about $70,000 and can vacation above 300 miles on a solitary cost.

Amazon experienced also put an order of 100,000 EDVs in 2019, while Ford’s Lincoln division had been acquiring a new EV with Rivian prior to the pandemic. Rivian originally advised investors that it could produce 50,000 cars in 2022, and it anticipated to fulfill Amazon’s entire purchase by 2025. Its total amount of preorders for R1 motor vehicles (excluding Amazon’s initial EDV get) also surged from 71,000 in the 3rd quarter of 2021 to about 114,000 in the 3rd quarter of 2022.

Why the bears inevitably chased away the bulls

But soon right after Rivian’s general public debut, the cracks began to appear. Initially and foremost, the market’s untempered enthusiasm for Rivian boosted its industry cap to $153 billion — 85 periods the sales it truly is envisioned to deliver this calendar year — and designed it more precious than Ford and General Motors.

Rivian was far more than priced for perfection at that nosebleed valuation, so it could not afford to make any mistakes. But shortly immediately after its IPO, Ford abandoned its strategies to co-build new Lincoln EVs with Rivian, which had by now been suspended because the commence of the pandemic. This January, Amazon agreed to start off buying Stellantis‘ Ram ProMaster electrical vans in 2023. Amazon also postponed its target for getting the entire fleet of 100,000 Rivian EDVs from 2025 to 2030. Traders commonly interpreted all all those choices as a reduction of self-assurance in Rivian’s production capabilities.

Those fears had been verified this March when supply chain constraints forced Rivian to decrease its yearly production goal to 25,000 cars. In Might, Ford reduced its stake in Rivian from 12{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} to less than 10{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}, although Amazon maintained its 20{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} stake and remained the automaker’s leading trader.

Rivian has created 14,317 vehicles in the first a few quarters of 2022, so it will will need to create around 10,000 cars in the fourth quarter to accomplish its total-yr concentrate on of 25,000 cars. Rivian believes it can accomplish that lofty goal, but a current recall (of practically all the vehicles it generated this year), allegations of safety violations, and the suspension of its EV joint undertaking with Mercedes-Benz to generate electric vans in Europe all elevated fresh new considerations about its generation abilities.

Soaring curiosity costs concluded off the stock (for now)

Rivian’s stock could possibly have experienced a softer landing if desire fees ended up very low and traders nevertheless experienced a nutritious appetite for speculative EV shares. Unfortunately, soaring desire prices around the past 12 months drove traders towards a lot more conservative investments and punished unprofitable organizations like Rivian, which racked up a staggering net loss of $5.03 billion in the 1st 9 months of 2022 while only making $995 million in income.

To make matters worse, Rivian’s stock nonetheless does not glance inexpensive right after its precipitous decrease. It’s still valued at about $17 billion, or 10 instances the sales it is really anticipated to deliver this yr (if it actually provides 25,000 cars). By comparison, Tesla trades at 5 instances this year’s profits.

I personally believe Rivian is much more promising than lots of of the SPAC-backed EV makers that flopped around the past calendar year. But till it properly ramps up its production and curiosity charges stabilize, it will keep on being out of favor in this challenging bear current market.

John Mackey, CEO of Total Foodstuff Sector, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of administrators. Leo Sun has positions in Amazon.com. The Motley Fool has positions in and endorses Amazon.com and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure coverage.

Francis McGee

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